Can the stock market direction be predicted by the Super Bowl?

February 06, 2019
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It used to be said that in years the Super Bowl was won by an original NFL team, the stock market would go up.  When an original AFL team won, the market would go down.  I seem to remember that back in the day, it often worked out that way. Now that the big game is over, what should we do with the information?  While I hope no one would seriously base their investment decisions on the outcome of a football game, I guess it can be kind of fun to think about, much like the groundhog predicting our winter weather!  I prefer to use valuations, earnings, interest rates and economic activity...to make investment decisions.  I assure you, that is difficult enough!  If I have to factor in who wins the Super Bowl to my calculus, well I might as well go with my old talking magic eight ball to make the decision!  Just for the record, the last three years the indicator has not worked.  Last year the Eagles won (NFL) yet the market was down.  In 2017 the Patriots won (AFL) and the market was up.  In 2016 the Broncos won (AFL) and the market was up.  So, what should we do this year knowing that the Patriots won (AFL)?  Well, so far this year the market is up.  It seems that the indicator has reversed itself.  For the last three years plus this year (so far), when the AFL team wins, the market goes up and when the NFL wins the market goes down.  Proceed at your own risk!  If I could only find my old talking magic eight ball...